Local elections always difficult for incumbents, says Sunak

Forecasts suggest Thursday’s local elections could see the Conservatives lose up to half of the council seats they are defending, having lost a third of seats last year.

The party leadership has placed much of its hope in mayoral candidates in the West Midlands and Teesside, where incumbents Andy Street and Ben Houchen are seeking re-election, but polls suggest very close contests with their Labour opponents.

Asked whether defeat in these contests would be a “catastrophe” for him, the Prime Minister told ITV News: “Local elections are always difficult for incumbent governments, but we’ll be campaigning very hard.

“We’ve got fantastic candidates and, as we said, there’s a very clear contrast in what you get from Conservatives at a local level – keeping your taxes low, keeping crime low, attracting jobs and investment – and the alternative with Labour – taxes going up, local authorities bankrupted, motorists being driven off the road and houses not remotely being built for a next generation.”

A wave of defeats on Thursday could push more Tory MPs into seeking to replace Mr Sunak before the general election.

A group of restive Conservative MPs has already drawn up a “policy blitz” for a potential successor, compounding the Prime Minister’s woes days before the local contests.

The policies include reducing legal migration, cutting the benefits bill, hiking defence spending to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) and giving junior doctors a pay rise of up to 12%.

Reports suggested some rebels were seeking to install Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt as his successor, though a source close to the Cabinet minister dismissed claims of her involvement as “total hogwash”.

Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, also seen as a potential leadership contender, this weekend called for net migration to be curbed to the tens of thousands.

The manoeuvring came as Mr Sunak repeatedly declined to rule out calling a July general election.

On Monday, he again refused to be drawn into commenting on a potential election date, saying only that it would take place in the second half of the year.

Most Westminster analysts expect this to mean October or November, but a drubbing in the local contests could force the Prime Minister’s hand.

Mr Sunak sought to bolster his premiership last week with a flurry of announcements, including the passing of Rwanda asylum legislation and a pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030.

But Conservative rebels said it was time to put an end to “broken pledges”, and that their 100-day plan, “with the right messenger”, was the only way to avoid an electoral wipeout.

A Tory rebel source said: “The country has had enough of broken pledges and distant plans for change or bans they never asked for.

“It’s a plan for 100 days to show the Government is taking action and cares about what matters to the British people – the NHS, immigration, getting our economy going by getting people back into work quickly and making our country safer and more secure.

“No more tinkering, dithering or managerialism – these are policies that can be introduced in a few months and then go to the country for people to make a decision.

“We’ve got to be clear and bold in our plan, and with the right messenger, to have any chance of winning, otherwise it could be two or three terms of Labour.”